Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:54 PM GMT on March 23, 2012

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The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin. Airports in fifteen different states have set all-time records for March warmth, which is truly extraordinary considering that the records were set in the middle of the month, instead of the end of the month. The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environment Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.) Michigan's all-time record for March warmth was toppled on Wednesday, when the mercury hit 90°F at Lapeer. The previous record, 89° at Lapeer in 1910, was matched at three stations yesterday--Ypsilanti, Dearborn, and Lapeer. The duration, areal size, and intensity of the Summer in March, 2012 heat wave are simply off-scale, and the event ranks as one of North America's most extraordinary weather events in recorded history. Such a historic event is difficult to summarize, and in today's post I will offer just a few of the most notable highlights.


Figure 1. Clear skies over the Eastern U.S. caused by a blocking ridge of high pressure on March 21, 2012, are apparent in this visible satellite image. The comma-shaped cloud pattern over the Central U.S. is associated with a "cut-off" low pressure system. This low is moving over the Eastern U.S. today through Saturday, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the U.S. and Canada. Image credit: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab, and modified by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Low temperatures beating previous high temperature records for the date
I've never seen a case where the low temperature for the date beat the previous record high. This happened on at least four occasions during "Summer in March, 2012":

The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan hit 52° on March 21, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date.

The low at Mt. Washington, NH on March 21 (44°) beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

The low temperature for International Falls, Minnesota on March 20 bottomed out at 60°F, tying the previous record high for the date.

The low temperature in Rochester, Minnesota on March 18 was 62°F, which beat the previous record high for the date of 60°.

Breaking all-time April records for warmth in March
Not only did many locations in Canada set records for their all-time warmest March day during "Summer in March, 2012", a number also broke their record for warmest April day:

St. John, New Brunswick hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 21. Previous March record: 17.5°C on March 21, 1994. April record: 22.8°C.

Kejimkujik Park, Nova Scotia hit 27.9°C on March 21. Previous March record: 22.5°C on March 30, 1986. April record: 25°C on April 27, 1990.

Yesterday, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Breaking daily temperature records by more than 30°F
It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°. Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F), yesterday, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33°F.) Yesterday's high temperature was 24°C (44°F) above average. Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula--dubbed "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state--hit 85° on March 21. This broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Breaking daily temperature records nine consecutive days or more
It is extremely rare for stations with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily high temperature record for seven or more days in a row. The longest such streak of consecutive high temperature records at International Falls, Minnesota, was a 5-day period March 3 - 7, 2000. The city has tied or broken their high temperature for the date ten consecutive days, as of yesterday. This streak will likely end today, as the high is predicted to be 60 - 65, and the record high for the date is 66. Chicago, Illinois has tied or broken their daily high temperature record the past nine days in a row. This ties the nine-day streak of record highs set on August 26 - September 3, 1953. Other cites that have set daily high temperature records the past nine days in a row include Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana. Numerous cities have broken high temperature records on seven consecutive days during "Summer in March, 2012", including Gaylord, Pellston, and Traverse City in Michigan.


Figure 2. All-time high temperature records set in March 2012 for the U.S. The grey icons show locations where the March record was broken on multiple days. Image taken from wunderground's new record extremes page, using data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012"
I've always said living in Michigan would be much more bearable if we could just get rid of March. March weather here is always horrible, with brutal cold, high winds, damaging ice storms, heavy snow, interminable cloudy stretches with no sun, all interspersed with a few teasing warm spells. Well, this year, I got my wish. This March, we started with twelve days of April weather, followed by ten days of June and July weather, with nine days of May weather predicted to round out the month. This has been a huge benefit to the economy--vastly reduced heating costs, no snow removal bills, and far fewer traffic accidents due to icy roads. However, there is major downside to the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave. The growing season is now in full swing, five weeks early. A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely. Indeed, the forecast calls for lows in the upper 20s in the cherry-growing region of Michigan near Traverse City on Monday night. The exceptional March warmth has also melted all the snow in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, drying out the soils and setting the stage for a much warmer than average summer, and an increased chance of damaging drought conditions. The early loss of snowpack will also likely cause very low flow rates in the major rivers in late summer and early fall, reducing the amount of water needed for irrigation of crops. Low flows may also cause problems for navigation, limiting commercial barge traffic on Midwest rivers.

Links
Andrew Freedman of Climate Central interviewed a number of climate scientists who are experts in studying the link between extreme weather events and climate change for his post, Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Wave Odds.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will be posting a more comprehensive summary of the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I expect I'll be hard at work this weekend, mowing my lawn for the first time ever in March!

Jeff Masters

2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms (gatyamgal)
Because of our week of record breaking Temps here in Bettendorf, IA, the neighbor's tree bloomed and lost its blossoms 3 weeks early. What will April bring?
2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms
Spring Landscape (thebige)
Spring Landscape
Jefferson Memorial (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington DC.
Jefferson Memorial

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Quoting Jedkins01:



I find it interesting what you have to say here, my view on Climate Change is very much similar as Levi's is, why then am I attributed to having the same thinking as those who say "drill baby drill"...









Don't ask me, I never gave you that label lol
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I raise you an EF5 or CAT5 on that bet mister. :D
The globe is warming-- fact. It is warming because mankind is pumping to much pollution into the atmosphere.-- Partial fact. Will the Earth suffer the Runaway Greenhouse Effect.?- Anything is possible. What gets me is rarely does anyone mention the fact that if the Global Conveyor Belt were to change abruptly, greenhouse effect or not, the Earth could be plunged into an ice age.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21507
Quoting Neapolitan:
Could be; it's been a very warm winter. In fact, western Europe and the UK are (relatively speaking) sweltering yet again today. Many locations in France made it into the upper 70s today, many places in the UK climbed into the mid and upper 60s, and even Sweden and Norway got in on the action with temps in the upper 50s. (For good measure, iceland and Greenland were unseasonably toasty today, with record highs into mid and upper 50s.)

Thanks Nea...much appreciated
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
Quoting presslord:

The difference between weather and climate: You can't weather a tree, but you can climate.
i like to see you clim ate the tree wearing heels
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
What do meteorologists call PMS?
Conditional instability.
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What do they call the main conference room at The Weather Underground?
The Topical Convergence Zone.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Hail is a lot less common in Florida for a a few reasons. I don't really feel like posting a giant comment on hail like I did a couple days ago. But hail has a lot more to do with temperature with height than intensity of thunderstorms. I live close to Clearwater FL and have lived here for 16 of my 21 years alive and have only seen hail 2 times ever, it was about quarter size and didn't stay frozen long, but times I've seen hail, it was from a cold front in the middle of winter and both times I saw hail the storms weren't all that impressive besides the hail.


Often times instead of hail here, you will see ridiculously massive rain drops, it has to do with warm air with depth. I remember we had a relative from Michigan down during a severe thunderstorms and the rain drops were absolutely monstrous, he said he had never seen anything close to that before in Michigan. Well honestly most of the time that is what happens here, instead of hail you just get extremely large rain drops that sting if they hit you, its water that has been suspended very long due to strong updrafts but because of the depth of warm air it isn't hail when it reaches the ground.


That being said, hail is defined more by wet bulb temperature and depth of heat, that is a tropical-like environment will generally mean less hail regardless of how powerful the thunderstorm is. Even when you do get hail here, generally speaking the same thunderstorm producing severe size hail here would likely produce much larger hail if the cell were say in Nebraska.



The rainddrops here can get very large; I once read that many of the largest drops were actually hailstones that probably didn't melt until almost to ground level.

Living in South Florida, I've been in a million intense downpours, but once while crossing Alligator Alley, I drove at midday into a line of rain that was as black and as close to night as anything I've ever seen during the day. I mean, it was like entering a cave. I slowed down and put my wipers on full, but they couldn't begin to keep up with the amount of water that was coming down; I couldn't see 20 feet in front of me, so I pulled over to the side of I-75 and sat for a good ten minutes until it let up. The raindrops were absolutely humongous, but I assumed that was because they were so closely spaced that they were sort of clinging together and coming down as one. No one passed me as I sat, so I can only assume everyone was forced to pull over as I was. It was by far the most intense rainfall I've ever seen--and I've been in hurricanes and tropical storms.
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Quoting Cyclone2012:
Can't wait till hurricane season gets underway already, =(.


Only 68 days left.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14412
Quoting presslord:

The difference between weather and climate: You can't weather a tree, but you can climate.

LOL.

That's funny.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting presslord:

The difference between weather and climate: You can't weather a tree, but you can climate.


I raise you an EF5 or CAT5 on that bet mister. :D
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Well, it just got done pouring down rain very hard. No hail, but we were close. :P

My second chance is entering NC now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354

The difference between weather and climate: You can't weather a tree, but you can climate.
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Quoting DoctorDave1:
Although not reported by the media, especially by Dr. Masters, this month has been one of the coldest relative to the last 30 year average GLOBALLY.


That is an outright fabrication. The monthly averages for the month aren't released until April, and there is no indication that globally temperatures were below normal. Even if they were, a single monthly average is a far cry from the evidence one would need to show the planet wasn't warming.

The anomolous bubble of warm air over the Eastern U.S. was produced by an extreme buckling of the jet stream. Now, anyone who has had Meteorology 101 will know that it is COLD AIR that causes the buckling of the jet stream, not warm air. Also, it is COLD AIR that causes most extreme weather events, not warm air.


You must have gone to a very strange school, because your quite wrong on all counts. Weather is driven by the energy within the system and how it is distributed. The differentials between these distributions is what we see as "weather". The more extreme the differentials, the more extreme the weather. The jet streams are generated by such differentials, and the configuration is determined by the size, distribution, and magnitude.

Both cold air and warm air are responsible for extreme weather events. Saying otherwise doesn't make any sense.

Finally, I am tired of people who claim to be scientists say that it is their gut feeling that recent extreme waether events have been enhanced by AGW.


I can see why. It must be be very tiring trying to maintain your opinion in the face of overwhelming facts.

Water content in the atmosphere is ~18000 pmm average versus 400 ppm for CO2, and water is a "stronger" greenhouse gas than CO2.


This statement verifies you have no grasp on the concepts of energy balance and the role greenhouse gases play. Water vapor is a transient greenhouse gas. It has an atmospheric lifetime of a few days. Gases like CO2 on the other hand have an atmospheric lifetime of 150+ years. In other words, a temporary increase in water vapor doesn't hang around. With CO2, anything above and beyond what the carbon cycle can handle stays in the atmosphere. Therefore, long lived green house gases lead to long term increase in the planet's ability to retain heat. That doesn't include other feedbacks than be triggered as a result of the additional heat.

Was the earth's temperature last year greater in 1998? That was 14 years ago. Answer that simple question truthfully and you will have the answer to the truth of AGW.


2010 beat out 1998, but that is irrelevant. You cherry picked an anomalous year to try to make a point about climate. When examining climate studies you don't compare single events, single years, or even single decades. For a climate comparison of any credibility usually 30 or more years of data is used. Otherwise there is far too much noise from natural variation to get a clear signal.

I would suggest you read more on the subject to get a better base to build your arguments from. Right now, your arguments either make no sense, are physically invalid, or are just tired rehashes of the same arguments that have been debunked many many times.
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Quoting nigel20:

I've notice that northern Greeland is under drought conditions....is that due to low snow levels through out the winter?
Could be; it's been a very warm winter. In fact, western Europe and the UK are (relatively speaking) sweltering yet again today. Many locations in France made it into the upper 70s today, many places in the UK climbed into the mid and upper 60s, and even Sweden and Norway got in on the action with temps in the upper 50s. (For good measure, iceland and Greenland were unseasonably toasty today, with record highs into mid and upper 50s.)
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Quoting wxmod:
Stagnant, polluted muck. Irish Sea. MODIS today.
You never know where these stagnant airmasses come from, or if they have some purpose (geoengineering,etc.) People are changing the weather. No doubt about it.





Indeed - a real shame as without the haze, would've been even hotter and sunnier here today. Like so many things, March summer has crossed the Atlantic!
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Quoting SPLbeater:


moderate drought here northern fringes!:D

Australia have gotten so much rain over the last two years it's almost unbelievable....with 2011 Queensland flood causing 30 billion dollars plus in damages and the 2012 New South Wales flood event is likely to cause some damage as well
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
Quoting Neapolitan:
I saw grape-size hail more than once while living in Ocala. But the real fun was when I lived in Hail Alley, just east of the Front Range in Colorado. It seems like it hailed every three or four days in July, mostly golf ball-size and smaller. It was rough on the car, but all in all not too bad. But I did fell bad for the local farmers....



Hail is a lot less common in Florida for a a few reasons. I don't really feel like posting a giant comment on hail like I did a couple days ago. But hail has a lot more to do with temperature with height than intensity of thunderstorms. I live close to Clearwater FL and have lived here for 16 of my 21 years alive and have only seen hail 2 times ever, it was about quarter size and didn't stay frozen long, but times I've seen hail, it was from a cold front in the middle of winter and both times I saw hail the storms weren't all that impressive besides the hail.


Often times instead of hail here, you will see ridiculously massive rain drops, it has to do with warm air with depth. I remember we had a relative from Michigan down during a severe thunderstorms and the rain drops were absolutely monstrous, he said he had never seen anything close to that before in Michigan. Well honestly most of the time that is what happens here, instead of hail you just get extremely large rain drops that sting if they hit you, its water that has been suspended very long due to strong updrafts but because of the depth of warm air it isn't hail when it reaches the ground.


That being said, hail is defined more by wet bulb temperature and depth of heat, that is a tropical-like environment will generally mean less hail regardless of how powerful the thunderstorm is. Even when you do get hail here, generally speaking a thunderstorm that is producing hail here would likely produce much larger hail if the cell were say in Nebraska, especially if it was summer time.






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Quoting Neapolitan:
The month-to-date average for Chicago is 54.5 (the previous warmest March ever was 48.6), but the forecast through the end of the month calls for an average high of 53.6, so I'd say the record is very firmly in hand; the final number will likely be somewhere around 54.1. Incredible...
yes it truly is but there are some that will just shake it off as nothing thats the funny thing we can with assurance, say that a warming ocean and atmosphere means increasing overall variability with a far greater chance of climate chaos and odd patterns? and its only just the beginning the last few years show the occurences of these events are increasing with time
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Quoting DoctorDave1:
Although not reported by the media, especially by Dr. Masters, this month has been one of the coldest relative to the last 30 year average GLOBALLY. The anomolous bubble of warm air over the Eastern U.S. was produced by an extreme buckling of the jet stream.


Kinda like when the US is cold but the rest of the world is sweltering, the media doesn't report nearly as much on the heat and reports more on the cold snaps in the US that somehow are evidence against climate change.

Although cooler than recent years, the global temperature for the last full month has still been above average and it continues the trend of every month being above average. The last time a month has gone below average was in 1985.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

Quoting DoctorDave1:
Now, anyone who has had Meteorology 101 will know that it is COLD AIR that causes the buckling of the jet stream, not warm air. Also, it is COLD AIR that causes most extreme weather events, not warm air. Finally, I am tired of people who claim to be scientists say that it is their gut feeling that recent extreme waether events have been enhanced by AGW.


Its not warm air that slows down the jet stream, nor cold air. It's the reduction in temperature gradient between the temperate zone and the arctic.

I'd also suggest that you look into what kinds of natural climate variability can be observed on top of any long term trends. That might help you find the answer to your issue with El Nino/La Nina and years when global temperature records occur.
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Quoting wxmod:
World drought monitor

I've notice that northern Greeland is under drought conditions....is that due to low snow levels through out the winter?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
Quoting BobWallace:


Where are you finding global temperature data for March 2012?


He's not finding it anywhere, because it isn't true. This month will almost certainly rank in the top ten warmest globally, with a good chance of a top 5 finish. Even the UAH satellite figures show this month is a lot warmer than February, and recent days have been the warmest since 2007.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Curiously - I live in the depths of Florida, and I have never once seen Hail. Seems like SFL gets the big thunderstorms usually.
I saw grape-size hail more than once while living in Ocala. But the real fun was when I lived in Hail Alley, just east of the Front Range in Colorado. It seems like it hailed every three or four days in July, mostly golf ball-size and smaller. It was rough on the car, but all in all not too bad. But I did fell bad for the local farmers....
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Quoting wxmod:

The stronger than normal azores high is pushing low pressure systems further north than normal, hence creating dryer conditions over sections of europe
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
Good day all...hope everyone is having a good weekend
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8229
Quoting drought:
The first 23 days of March would rank as the 5th warmest April in Chicago records. However some cool days starting now will knock that back a little
The month-to-date average for Chicago is 54.5 (the previous warmest March ever was 48.6), but the forecast through the end of the month calls for an average high of 53.6, so I'd say the record is very firmly in hand; the final number will likely be somewhere around 54.1. Incredible...
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Quoting SPLbeater:


moderate drought here northern fringes!:D
Those are not specks, there squares...jk....really...jk..:)
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475. wxmod
England to Netherlands. North Sea satellite photo. MODIS today. Widespread extensive contrails, jet traffic altering the atmosphere in a big way.

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Quoting TomTaylor:
From what I can tell, Levi seems to agree with a lot of the stuff Nea and the rest have to say. He acknowledges we have been warming, he understands and accepts the ghg theory, he knows humans must have some effect, and he agrees we should strive for cleaner energy sources.

He's just more cautious when it comes to model predictions, and less likely to label extreme weather events with global warming. He also said he was uncertain to what extent humans have influenced this warming.


All reasonable doubts, in my opinion. As far as the science behind it all, Levi agrees with Nea and the gang; its the predictions and the event blaming that Levi is taking a more cautious approach on.



I find it interesting what you have to say here, my view on Climate Change is very much similar as Levi's is, why then am I attributed to having the same thinking as those who say "drill baby drill"...









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Quoting Jedkins01:




lol, I got a good laugh out of this :)


I had to look down quite a ways but that poster is funny :)
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The first 23 days of March would rank as the 5th warmest April in Chicago records. However some cool days starting now will knock that back a little
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Hi Analyst13,
That's Mr. Carbin.
:)

Just because the watch is for thunderstorms doesn't mean a tor is not possible. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
Yes, tors can be that unpredictable.

Enjoy your weather watching today.
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469. wxmod
Northern Europe today. MODIS

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Quoting hydrus:
I notice that there is not one speck of drought in Australia.


moderate drought here northern fringes!:D
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
A little bit of wisdom for weather and climate debates





lol, I got a good laugh out of this :)
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Quoting wxmod:
World drought monitor
I notice that there is not one speck of drought in Australia.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21507
Quoting BobWallace:


Where are you finding global temperature data for March 2012?
wait its mar 24 we still have seven days
maybe he got the march report early the doctored one
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


You might want to check out the SPC FAQ page.
Here's a couple examples of what you will find there.

2.6 Why are watches not issued for all severe storms?
Many severe thunderstorms affect only a small area for a short period of time, making watches impractical. Watches are issued primarily for areas where well organized or significant severe weather is possible, or the severe weather threat is expected to persist for many hours.

4.2 How does the National Weather Service (NWS) define a severe thunderstorm?
The term severe thunderstorm refers to a thunderstorm producing hail that is at least quarter size, 1 inch in diameter or larger, and/or wind gusts to 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado. Although lightning can be deadly, the NWS doesn't use it to define a severe thunderstorm. If it did, every thnderstorm would be severe, by definition. Also, excessive rainfall may lead to deadly flash flooding, but heavy rain is not a severe criterion either. The flood threat is handled through a separate set of watches and warnings from your local NWS forecast office.


As someone mentioned, your local weather forecast office issues warnings. Also, SPC co-ordinates watches with local offices before the decision is made which counties to include.




Well where I live in Central Florida, there are some days where there are just isolated severe storms, but some days we have a much larger amount of severe weather, yet watch boxes are never issued even though the NWS often will note that atmosphere is highly favorable for severe thunderstorms. That being said, I'm really not that upset that they don't issue watches for those events, because those types of events around here are harder to predict than an organized frontal event. Ive seen watch boxes issued many times that don't turn out to much.


All the years living here, it may appear the severe threat from frontal systems in general is hyped a lot more than the summer time severe events that we receive, in that Ive experienced far more severe weather from summer time sea breeze events even though we get less warnings and never get watches.
Ive seen frontal systems that get tons of media coverage here, a tornado watch box, and a host of warnings and forecast wording that will say "thunderstorms 90%, some severe" yet often even the warned thunderstorms end up not being as bad at least from my experience than summer thunderstorms I've had that don't even have warnings. When we DO get warnings from a cell during the summer they deliver with an attitude, lol. However, I have experienced some pretty darn impressive events with frontal system during El Nino, though.


Again, I'm not knocking the SPC or the NWS, its just a lot easier to anticipate severe weather from an organized frontal event because much of the severe weather from frontal systems is induced on the synoptic scale from upper disturbances and what not. Because models are much better at forecasting severe weather events of that nature, forecasters then can up their confidence of severe weather as well as a result.


Now the same can't be said for the majority of summer time events here in Central Florida, this is because much of the severe weather is mesoscale triggered. If you were to look at model forecasts for the events they rarely pick up on severe events or heavy rainfall properly. What I mean by that is a model might forecast scattered thunderstorms every day for the week period with small potential for severe parameters with about 0.25 QPF each day. Yet in reality, some of those days there may be only one or 2 severe cells or none at all, while another day there ends up a significant amount of severe cells. Likewise some days you might get no rain at all, or maybe just a brief shower, while other days during this period you might pick up 1, 2, or 3 inches.

That being said, forecasters can't really confidently forecast severe weather events during the summer so they might throw in a daily slight risk, but every day you tend to see different results with overall a similar atmosphere. This is often due to surface and local weather changes from day to day that can affect weather drastically during the summer time pattern as far as amount of rain and severe weather. If you get where I'm going here, I'm actually defending forecasters :)


Ultimately for today, its unlikely forecasters will issue a watch further south into Central Florida because by this point the frontal system won't really have the dynamics in place for severe, however with a very warm, and very moist atmosphere in place as well as some higher instability, severe is still possible, just not enough to use a watch due to a lack of confidence in the severe actually materializing.
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Quoting DoctorDave1:
Although not reported by the media, especially by Dr. Masters, this month has been one of the coldest relative to the last 30 year average GLOBALLY.


Where are you finding global temperature data for March 2012?
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462. wxmod
World drought monitor
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on hail...come on hail...come on hail...



i doubt that has hail.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4487
Come on hail...come on hail...come on hail...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC023-111-121-241730-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0035.120324T1644Z-120324T1730Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1244 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
WEST OF MARION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
MARION.
LAKE JAMES.
ASHFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING. TURN OFF ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED
TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A BATH OR SHOWER.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8172 3560 8212 3571 8224 3576 8217
3579 8217 3581 8214 3582 8215 3594 8203
3592 8197 3592 8195 3595 8196 3597 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 228DEG 16KT 3572 8209

$$

JOH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Why did the SPC cut the watch at St. Johns County? There are 2 lines of strong storms heading a bit south of the Watch.. The Severe Weather watch should have been extended farther south towards Daytona Beach/Orlando. Of course, it's the SPC, always on top of things :P. Just like they were on top of things when a tornado/severe weather warning wasn't issued here a few weeks or a month ago, when we had wind damage in PC.


You might want to check out the SPC FAQ page.
Here's a couple examples of what you will find there.

2.6 Why are watches not issued for all severe storms?
Many severe thunderstorms affect only a small area for a short period of time, making watches impractical. Watches are issued primarily for areas where well organized or significant severe weather is possible, or the severe weather threat is expected to persist for many hours.

4.2 How does the National Weather Service (NWS) define a severe thunderstorm?
The term severe thunderstorm refers to a thunderstorm producing hail that is at least quarter size, 1 inch in diameter or larger, and/or wind gusts to 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado. Although lightning can be deadly, the NWS doesn't use it to define a severe thunderstorm. If it did, every thnderstorm would be severe, by definition. Also, excessive rainfall may lead to deadly flash flooding, but heavy rain is not a severe criterion either. The flood threat is handled through a separate set of watches and warnings from your local NWS forecast office.


As someone mentioned, your local weather forecast office issues warnings. Also, SPC co-ordinates watches with local offices before the decision is made which counties to include.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok Carbin..let's just remove the possibility of tornadoes from the watch after Gram issued a Mescoscale Discussion stating that a few tornadoes were possible. :P



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ROANOKE VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 104...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD WARMING AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AROUND
40KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND
LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...CARBIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
456. wxmod
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
455. VR46L
Quoting skook:
Yes I was wondering the same . Didnt see any real trollish behaviour on this blog today . All I saw was a disagreement and people backing one side or the other surely that is healthy on a blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watching out for cold air funnels/tornadoes tomorrow afternoon:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
453. wxmod
Stagnant, polluted muck. Irish Sea. MODIS today.
You never know where these stagnant airmasses come from, or if they have some purpose (geoengineering,etc.) People are changing the weather. No doubt about it.



Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
442. Jedkins01 4:19 PM GMT on March 24, 2012 +0
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Actually Jedkins01 is one of the better bloggers here.

It's not so much that it isn't happening, but rather the scale. The next decade or two will go a long ways in getting a much better grasp of just how the climate on this planet is governed.


Thank you!


See, I've made it clear many times that I never once said Climate Change doesn't exist, its the specifics on Climate Change that I'm highly skeptical of. I have a good reason to be, I'm not concerned with the approval of others so much as finding the truth.

Keyword:finding. Like many things in science, there is much yet know about Climate Change.











Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2986



Climate Change is real
nature keeps showing us that fact
except we blame it on everything else but what it is
how big of an event will it take
before we accept the unaccepted
maybe regional and national events are not enough
we need a global event the likes that never been seen before
thats what you want thats what you will get


o by the way we cannot depend on a young person to answer and come up with the truth if it means the end as we know it he will look for every other excuse but his own dimise they have plans and look forward to there future and there own destruction is not part of there future and they will refuse to accept it right till the very end even right outside there door

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.